Projections of cancer incidence and cancer-related deaths in Germany by 2020 and 2030

Abstract

Past patterns of cancer disease and future changes in the demographic structure have a major influence on the projected incidences of human malignancies. In Germany, nearly a quarter of men and 20% of women die of cancer, and it is estimated that in Germany around 51% men and 43% women will develop cancer during lifetime. Here, we project the cancer incidence case number as well as the number of deaths for the most common cancers in the German population for the years 2020 and 2030. By 2030, prostate cancer will be the most common malignancy, surpassing breast cancer. Lung cancer will rank third most frequent cancer and will remain the most common cause of cancer-related mortality. Additionally, our projections show a marked increase in liver cancer cases with a continuous rise in liver cancer-related deaths. Finally, we project a constant increase in the incidence of pancreatic cancer. Based on our projections, pancreatic cancer will surpass colorectal and breast cancer to rank as the second most common cause of cancer-related deaths in Germany by 2030.

In 2014, Rahib and colleagues have reported future cancer incidences and death rates for the United States. In our work, we have further developed the analytical approach and present projections for Germany, which represents a different Western population. While we find differences in incidence and death rates between Germany and the United States for several cancers, the alarming rise of incidence and death rates for pancreatic and liver cancer seem to hold true for both countries. Furthermore, we see a sharp rise in female lung cancers.

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