Purpose: Characterize tumor burden dynamics during PD-1 inhibitor therapy and investigate the association with overall survival (OS) in advanced melanoma.
Experimental Design: The study included 107 advanced melanoma patients treated with pembrolizumab. Tumor burden dynamics were assessed on serial CT scans using irRECIST and were studied for the association with OS.
Results: Among 107 patients, 96 patients had measurable tumor burden and 11 had nontarget lesions alone at baseline. In the 96 patients, maximal tumor shrinkage ranged from –100% to 567% (median, –18.5%). Overall response rate was 44% (42/96; 5 immune-related complete responses, 37 immune-related partial responses). Tumor burden remained <20% increase from baseline throughout therapy in 57 patients (55%). Using a 3-month landmark analysis, patients with <20% tumor burden increase from baseline had longer OS than patients with ≥20% increase (12-month OS rate: 82% vs. 53%). In extended Cox models, patients with <20% tumor burden increase during therapy had significantly reduced hazards of death [HR = 0.19; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.08–0.43; P < 0.0001 univariate; HR = 0.18; 95% CI, 0.08–0.41; P < 0.0001, multivariable]. Four patients (4%) experienced pseudoprogression; 3 patients had target lesion increase with subsequent response, which was noted after confirmed immune-related progressive disease (irPD). One patient without measurable disease progressed with new lesion that subsequently regressed.
Conclusions: Tumor burden increase of <20% from the baseline during pembrolizumab therapy was associated with longer OS, proposing a practical marker for treatment decision guides that needs to be prospectively validated. Pseudoprogressors may experience response after confirmed irPD, indicating a limitation of the current strategy for immune-related response evaluations. Evaluations of patients without measurable disease may require further attention. Clin Cancer Res; 1–9. ©2017 AACR.
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