Impact of Widespread Cervical Cancer Screening: Number of Cancers Prevented and Changes in Race-specific Incidence

Objectives: With recent approval of standalone HPV testing and increasing uptake of HPV vaccination, some have postulated that we are moving toward a "post-Pap" era of cervical cancer prevention. However, the total number cases that have been prevented by Pap smear screening as well as its impact on racial disparities are unknown. Methods: We estimated national cervical cancer incidence from 1976 to 2009 using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result database. Screening data were obtained from the literature and National Cancer Institute Progress Reports. We examined early, late, and race-specific trends in cancer incidence, and calculated the estimated number of cancers prevented over the past 3 decades. Results: From 1976 to 2009, there was a significant decrease in the incidence of early-stage cervical cancer, from 9.8 to 4.9 cases per 100,000 women (P

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