Trends in cervical cancer incidence and mortality in Poland: is there an impact of the introduction of the organised screening?

Abstract

Aside from existing opportunistic screening, an organised screening programme (OSP) for cervical cancer (CC) was implemented in 2006/2007 in Poland. We applied joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort model to look for the impact of the OSP on CC incidence/mortality trends. Decline of age-standardised incidence rates (ASIRs) in the screening-age group (25–59 years) accelerated from −2.2% (95% CI −2.7 to −1.7%) between 1993 and 2008 to −6.1% (95% CI −7.7 to −4.4%) annually after 2008. In women aged 60+ years, ASIRs declined from 1986 until 2005 [annual percent change (APC) = −2.6%, 95% CI −2.9 to −2.4%] and stabilised thereafter. Decline of age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) in the screening-age group accelerated from −1.3% (95% CI −1.5 to −1.1%) between 1980 and 2005 to −4.7% (95% CI −5.6 to −3.8%) annually after 2005. In women aged 60+ ASMR declined between 1991 and 2004 (APC = −2.9%, 95% CI −3.5 to −2.3%) and stabilised thereafter. Relative risks of CC diagnosis and death were 0.63 (95% CI 0.62–0.65) and 0.61 (95% CI 0.59–0.63), respectively, for the most recent period compared to the reference around 1982. Implementation of the OSP possibly accelerated downward trends in the burden of CC in Polish women under the age of 60, but recent stabilisation of trends in older women requires actions.

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